Trade Idea: Epstein files released this week?

Market: Epstein files released this week?

Return: 25% (resolved by Friday)

Welcome back to The Poly. Our last couple of ideas have been small trades based on high-risk high-reward outcomes to try to get that big homerun type of play. Today, we are going to get back on track with our usual safer style of trading.

We all saw the news late last week about the Epstein files being released - and the mess around the delays, redactions, and the FBI holding thousands of files back. Polymarket has added another market for new Epstein files, related to newer files after the so-called “Phase 1” files were released. We are going with the no side of this trade at 80% odds, meaning a simple trade here returns 25% in 5 days.

Latest on the Epstein Files Release: What We Know Now

As of today, March 3rd, it looks like we're getting more Epstein documents at some point, but there is nothing confirmed about anything dropping before March 7th. Attorney General Bondi keeps saying this "Phase 1" release is just the beginning and Americans will "get the full Epstein files" eventually, but she maintains a pretty vague idea about when exactly that will happen.

So about that "Phase 1" release from last week (February 27-28) - there was a ton of hype beforehand. Bondi went on Fox News saying the contents "will make you sick" and promised flight logs, names, all that juicy stuff. They even had this whole ceremony with conservative commentators posing at the White House holding binders labeled "The Epstein Files: Phase 1." But when people actually saw what was in there it was a huge letdown. The released files were around 200 pages with some flight logs from Epstein's private jet, a heavily redacted contacts list, and a completely blacked-out list of "masseuses." There was also this evidence list mentioning things they found at Epstein's properties like "one CD labelled 'girl pics nude book 4'" and various recording devices and massage tables. Pretty much everyone was disappointed - left, right, didn't matter. A lot of this stuff had already been made public during Ghislaine Maxwell's case or through other legal channels. Even the conservative commentators who did that White House photo op admitted it wasn't what they expected. Chad Prather said "we didn't receive the information we were hoping for," and Scott Presler called it "not a smoking gun."

Things got really interesting when tension arose between the DOJ and FBI. The day after the release, the DOJ accused the FBI of holding back "thousands of pages" of Epstein documents. Bondi wrote a strongly-worded letter to FBI Director Kash Patel demanding they hand everything over by the next morning. Pretty unusual to see two major agencies going at it like that in public.

Just yesterday, Bondi was on Fox News with Mark Levin still insisting more is coming: "New York City SDNY, they're sitting on thousands of pages of documents regarding Epstein. Thousands, thousands." She promised, "We will get everything. We will have it in our possession. We will redact it, of course, to protect grand jury information and confidential witnesses. But the American people have a right to know."

Will we see more files released?

Will we see anything before March 7th? Pretty unlikely in my opinion. There is clearly a lot going on behind the scenes here that the public are unaware of. There is a reason, whatever it may be, for the FBI holding these files back. They knew they would get flack for holding them back but they did it anyway. This tells us the chances of those extra files being released in the next five days is pretty miniscule. If the FBI does release them by Friday then what was the point of holding them back for an extra few days? It does nothing but damage their reputation. So again, I believe strongly that there are some behind the scenes reasons we are not seeing these files and likely won’t for some time. Plus, they need time to redact all that sensitive info and protect the identities of over 200 victims, which isn't quick work.

Remember, Epstein died by suicide in August 2019 while awaiting trial for trafficking teenage girls. His case gets so much attention because of all his connections to powerful people. A ton of records have already come out through various channels over the years, including that final batch of documents from Virginia Giuffre's lawsuit back in January 2024. Bondi's framing this whole thing as part of Trump's transparency initiatives, calling him "the most transparent president in our nation's history" and saying they'll also declassify documents about JFK and MLK Jr. To me, it seems like Bondi and the Trump admin rushed to get anything they could possibly get out and call it a victory for transparency, regardless of the contents of the files.

Bottom line: Bondi definitely seems committed to releasing more Epstein files soon, but there's no hard evidence that anything new will drop specifically between now and March 7th. The DOJ-FBI drama and all the necessary redactions mean the timeline for "Phase 2" is still up in the air. But according to Bondi, more is definitely coming... eventually.