Trade Idea: What continent will next Pope be from?

Market: What continent will next Pope be from?

Trade: Europe

Current Odds: 66%

Return: 52%

Resolved by: Potentially May 7th (Cardinals may deliberate for longer)

Position Size: Full

Welcome back to a new trade idea on The Poly. This week we hit a big milestone: reaching a 100% return in our first three months! Here is an overview of all our trades since we started this newsletter back in February:

We look forward to continuing to bring results as great as these and to keep on building up our account to become one of the major traders on Polymarket. With that being said, let’s get into today’s trade idea.

The 2025 Papal Conclave

The upcoming papal conclave, set to begin after Pope Francis's passing on April 21st, has sparked worldwide interest about where the next pope might come from. Francis certainly made the College of Cardinals more globally diverse during his time, but several key factors still point to Europe as the most likely source of his successor.

Looking at the numbers, European cardinals maintain significant representation among those who'll vote. Then there's the Vatican's bureaucracy, which is deeply rooted in centuries of tradition and resistant to rapid change. European theological perspectives also continue to shape Church thinking in profound ways. Perhaps most importantly, papal elections involve complex negotiations and alliances that tend to favor candidates with connections to Rome and European church power centers. So while the Church has become more global in many ways, the road to the papacy still runs through Europe – at least for now.

The College of Cardinals: A European Tilt

Despite Pope Francis's push for a more global Church, European cardinals still hold the largest voting bloc. They account for 40% of voters (53 out of 135), while Asia has 17%, North America 14.8%, South America 12.6%, and Africa 13.3%. This European advantage doesn't reflect where Catholics actually live - Europe houses just 20.4% of the world's Catholics, compared to South America's 27.4% and Africa's 20%. Still, with 89 votes needed to elect a pope, European cardinals have considerable sway in the final decision.

Europeans also run many of the Vatican's key administrative offices. Take Italy's Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State under Francis, he is seen as a leading candidate thanks to his insider knowledge and diplomatic skills. France's Cardinal Dominique Mamberti holds the important Senior Cardinal Deacon position. These roles give European church leaders unmatched understanding of how the Vatican actually works, making them practical choices for cardinals who value steady leadership and institutional knowledge.

Europe's Deep Papal Roots

Throughout Catholic history, Europe's grip on the papacy has been nearly absolute. Of 266 popes, only a handful weren't European, with Francis from Argentina being the first non-european pope in over 1,300 years. While Francis's 2013 election broke this pattern, it didn't eliminate the built-in advantages European cardinals enjoy. When voting, cardinals tend to favor candidates who can effectively manage the Vatican's intricate political environment, which is a skill often credited to Europeans with their proximity to Rome.

European cardinals typically align better with the doctrinal conservatism that remains influential in the Vatican, despite Francis's more progressive approach. Take Cardinal Gerhard Müller, who previously led the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith - he's become a notable critic of Francis's more welcoming stance toward LGBTQ+ and divorced Catholics. Such figures appeal to cardinals concerned about preserving traditional doctrine, especially those representing more conservative Catholic communities.

Inside the Conclave's Power Dynamics

The need for a two-thirds majority makes forming alliances essential. While non-European cardinals actually hold 60% of the votes, they're spread across different regions with diverse priorities. African cardinals often champion issues like poverty reduction and protecting religious minorities, while Asian cardinals frequently emphasize dialogue between faiths. European cardinals, however, share more cultural and theological common ground, making it easier for them to unite behind one candidate. Though Francis appointed 80% of the voting cardinals, the remaining 20% - selected by Benedict XVI and John Paul II - still wield considerable influence. These cardinals, mostly European, tend to favor candidates who prioritize traditional doctrine and centralized Church authority. Their votes could be decisive, particularly if the more progressive Francis appointees split their support among several candidates.

European Frontrunners: Three Cardinals to Watch

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)

As Francis's Secretary of State, Parolin has managed Vatican diplomacy through major global challenges, from the Ukraine war to climate negotiations. He walks a middle path, supporting Francis's focus on social justice while maintaining traditional doctrine, making him appealing to both progressive and conservative wings. His weakness? Some criticize his handling of abuse cases as lacking transparency, a serious concern as the Church faces demands for greater accountability.

Cardinal Christoph Schönborn (Austria)

The scholarly Archbishop of Vienna advocates giving more power to national bishops' conferences rather than centralizing everything in Rome. His support for allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to receive communion puts him in Francis's camp, though his strong theological background also appeals to traditionalists. While his conciliatory approach is valued, his age (80) might give some cardinals pause.

Cardinal Luis Ladaria Ferrer (Spain)

Leading the Vatican's doctrinal office, Ladaria has skillfully balanced strict doctrine with pastoral care. He helped craft Amoris Laetitia, Francis's document on family life that sparked both praise and controversy, earning respect from reformers and conservatives alike. As a Spaniard, he might attract Latin American cardinals looking for a European who understands the global Church.

Europe's Edge Remains

The upcoming 2025 conclave certainly showcases Catholicism's increasingly global nature. Yet Europe's built-in advantages, with more voting cardinals, control of key Vatican positions, and centuries of tradition, make another European pope the most likely outcome. Could a non-European be elected? Absolutely. But it would require a level of coordination and shared vision among cardinals from different regions that hasn't materialized yet. As cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel on May 7th, the familiar forces of tradition, practical politics, and regional influence will probably produce a pope who continues Europe's long-standing grip on the Church's highest office.

---

Thank you for reading The Poly, the #1 newsletter for prediction markets.

If you enjoyed this analysis, please help us by clicking the “♡ Like” button.

---

Risk warning and disclaimer: The Poly Newsletter is for information and entertainment purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice. Betting on prediction markets is high risk and can result in significant financial loss. Professional bettors typically risk no more than 0.5-2% of their capital on any one trade. No warranty is made to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information provided. The information in the publication may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.