Trade Idea: What product will Apple launch on February 19?
30% potential return (resolved within 3 days)
Apple’s Launch
Apple has officially announced a launch event for February 19, 2025. The tech world is buzzing with speculation about what the Cupertino giant will unveil. While rumors point to a range of possibilities, including new MacBooks and iPads, the redesigned iPhone SE (potentially rebranded as the iPhone 16E) seems like the strongest contender. Polymarket is currently showing odds of 77%. A potential return of 30% within 3 days.
The iPhone SE 4 will be announced
There are many reasons why I believe the next generation iPhone SE will be released during this launch, but the serious giveaway here is the European Union's new mandate for USB-C charging ports. As of December 28, 2024, devices with the older Lightning connector are no longer permitted for sale in the EU. Apple has already pulled the iPhone 14, 14 Plus, and iPhone SE from its EU stores. Apple is under pressure to release a new iPhone SE model quickly to comply with the European Union's mandate. This regulatory pressure incentivizes Apple to expedite the launch of a USB-C-equipped iPhone SE, making the February 19th announcement even more probable.
Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, a reliable source of Apple insider information, has repeatedly stated that the iPhone SE 4 announcement is imminent. Gurman initially suggested it would be announced the week of February 10 but later revised it to the week of February 17. Announcing the iPhone SE 4 now allows Apple to get ahead of the Mobile World Congress and capture market share before competitors unveil their new offerings
The issue of SE 4 vs 16E
The rumor mill is churning with anticipation for Apple's next budget-friendly offering, currently expected to be called the iPhone SE 4. However, whispers suggest a possible rebranding, with the name "iPhone 16E" being floated as a potential alternative. Regardless of the ultimate moniker, the core purpose of this device remains the same: to provide a more accessible entry point into the Apple ecosystem. The SE series has always been about delivering essential iPhone experiences at a lower price point, intentionally positioned to avoid direct competition with Apple's flagship models. This strategic choice ensures that the SE lineup serves a distinct market segment, appealing to budget-conscious consumers without cannibalizing sales of the premium iPhones. Given this dynamic, it's highly probable that the new iPhone SE (or 16E) will not be an annual release alongside the main iPhone series. A yearly budget-friendly model could potentially detract from the sales of the higher-end devices, disrupting Apple's carefully calibrated product strategy.
There's active debate on Polymarket regarding this market. Many newer traders are attempting to take advantage of the higher returns in the "Other iPhone" market by arguing that an iPhone 16E would be a completely new model—distinct from the SE series—and therefore should count as a win for "Other iPhone" rather than "iPhone SE."
The market rules state:
"The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used."
In ambiguous markets like this, siding with the consensus of credible reporting is crucial. I've made my share of mistakes with vaguely worded markets in the past, and over time, I've learned that Polymarket ultimately follows what the media reports. Currently, nearly all media outlets refer to the new device as the iPhone SE. Regardless of whether an article calls it the SE 4 or 16E, the overwhelming consensus is that it will be the next iteration of the SE series, regardless of any rebranding.
Furthermore, Polymarket has a separate market titled "iPhone SE 4 under $500?" which reinforces the idea that the naming—whether SE 4 or 16E—is irrelevant to the overall categorization.
Suppose Apple releases the next-generation SE for $479 under the name 16E. If this model is classified as an "Other iPhone," then the "iPhone SE 4 under $500?" market would resolve as a no—even though the new SE is priced under $500. This would create a significant problem for Polymarket.
In my previous article, I noted that "nothing ever happens" and I was right in that market. This time, I'll invoke Occam’s Razor—the principle that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. In my experience trading on Polymarket, I've seen that this straightforward approach is consistently applied to ambiguous markets. Debating the semantics of the iPhone's name only complicates matters for Polymarket. The simplest and most logical outcome is to consider the 16E as the next-generation SE, which is, after all, precisely what it is.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Apple’s February 19 launch is set to unveil the next generation of its budget-friendly iPhone SE. Savvy traders recognize that the debate over whether it will be named SE 4 or 16E is merely semantics. The underlying product remains a natural evolution of the SE series—a strategic move driven by regulatory pressures and market demands. Ultimately, regardless of the final name, the device is unmistakably the next-gen SE, a perspective that smart traders will have embraced.
Disclaimer & Risk Warning: this newsletter is intended for information and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are based solely on our personal opinions and do not represent recommendations to place any specific trade or bet. Prediction markets are highly risky and most prediction market participants lose money over time. The Poly Newsletter accepts no responsibility for any financial loss or decision. We strive to provide accurate analysis but mistakes and errors do occur. No warranty is made to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information provided. The information in the publication may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information and no liability shall be accepted for any loss.